America’s top spy just put it in writing. Iranian plots to kill Americans abroad have reached “advanced stages,” according to a memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Axios first reported the memo late Friday, October 23. CBS News and the BBC later obtained it too. The same day, the State Department ordered staff cuts at four more embassies in the Middle East.
What the Memo on Iranian Plots Says
The memo is one page, unclassified, and dated October 23. CIA Director John Ratcliffe was copied on it. Here is the key line, as CBS News reported: “The lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries.”
Clayton also wrote that his teams “have received intelligence that Iran has substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel.” However, the memo does not name targets, countries outside the Middle East or the nature of the plots. It also does not say whether an attack is imminent. CBS noted the memo landed as the administration weighs whether to resume military strikes on Iran. According to Axios, the underlying intelligence has already been shared with senior State Department officials.
Instead, Clayton raised a practical problem. Too few people at risk are cleared to see the warnings. So he offered to downgrade as much of the intelligence as possible, so Rubio can share it with the diplomats who need it.
That detail is easy to skip, but it may be the most important part of the memo. Intelligence that sits in a vault does not protect a consular officer on the street. Clayton is asking for the warnings to travel as far as the danger does.
Embassies Pull Back as Iranian Plots Grow
First came Saudi Arabia. Earlier in the week, State ordered family members and nonessential staff to leave the embassy in Riyadh and the consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran. Then, on Friday, it ordered cuts at the embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar, and Jordan, a U.S. official told Axios. CNN first reported those four reductions.
Those posts stay open. Several are on what State calls “restricted operations” status, which lets an embassy reduce staff without formally ordering departures, CBS reported. Still, a U.S. official was blunt with Axios: “We decided that due to the threat of Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots, we need to reduce our footprint and keep only essential staff.”
The weekend before, U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and other countries had already warned Americans to exercise caution because of Houthi attacks.
The Houthi Threat Is Already Deadly
The danger is not theoretical. Earlier this month, a Houthi strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid Airport killed at least a dozen people, including an American citizen, and injured hundreds more. The BBC puts that October 10 toll at 13 dead and 308 injured, the deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia in more than a decade. Saudi authorities say at least 21 people have been killed in Houthi attacks on Saudi airports since the start of October.
The Houthis say they are retaliating for what they call a Saudi blockade of their ports and airports. A four-year informal ceasefire began to unravel in July, when they announced a “maritime embargo” against Saudi Arabia. U.S. officials now fear the group could widen its attacks to other countries in the region, Axios reported. Meanwhile, U.S. officials told CBS the military has quietly reduced its own footprint in the region.
A Pattern, Not a One-Off
None of this is new behavior for Tehran. In 2022, the Justice Department charged a member of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard with trying to pay people in the U.S. $300,000 to murder former National Security Adviser John Bolton, likely in retaliation for the 2020 death of Qasem Soleimani. He remains at large.
In November 2024, prosecutors charged Farhad Shakeri, an IRGC asset living in Iran, in a plot directed from Tehran. He told investigators he had been tasked with providing a plan to kill Donald Trump, the BBC reported. Prosecutors also say Shakeri hired a man, who recruited a friend, to kill Iranian-American journalist Masih Alinejad in New York. Both men have since been sentenced, one to 15 years in January 2026. Shakeri remains at large.
The Justice Department’s own description is plain: the IRGC “plots and conducts attack operations outside Iran targeting, among others, U.S. citizens residing abroad and in the United States.” Those were peacetime plots. Clayton is now warning about plotting during a war.
Why This Matters at Home
A regime that plots to murder American diplomats is not a partner waiting for the right offer. It is telling us exactly who it is. That is why these Iranian plots matter to every family that has a son, daughter, or spouse serving overseas.
It also matters for the bigger picture. The U.S. and Israel launched the air campaign against Iran in February, killing its leader, the BBC notes. Tehran retaliated with strikes on U.S. allies across the region and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. A regime that has lost that much has motive to hit back wherever it can reach. And a preliminary deal in June to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz collapsed within weeks after Iranian attacks on shipping resumed and the U.S. reinstated its blockade. The U.S. and Iran have refrained from striking each other in recent weeks, but Iran has kept claiming attacks on tankers in Hormuz.
The Right Response to Iran
The staffing cuts also carry a cost. Every diplomat sent home is one fewer person working visas, helping stranded Americans and talking to local governments in a region that badly needs American engagement. That is a real loss, and it is one more reason to treat Iran’s campaign against our people as a serious act of hostility, not background noise.
Protecting our people comes first, and trimming staff is a reasonable move. Getting the warnings to the people in danger is the right call too. Bureaucratic secrecy should never be the reason an American official walks into a trap.
But pulling back cannot be the whole strategy. Tehran reads retreat as weakness. Peace through strength means Iran has to believe that harming Americans will cost it far more than it gains.
President Trump seems to understand that. At a Florida rally on Friday, he said, “We may do another little Epic Fury, or they’ll agree.” He has also put another Iran strike back on the table. Notably, he has not ruled out restarting hostilities after the November 3 midterms.
The Fair Caveats
Of course, a memo is not proof of a specific plot. It names no targets, and the public has not seen the underlying intelligence. That is normal for intelligence warnings, but it means voters should judge the response, not just the rhetoric.
Moreover, the war has already run since February, and Mike Waltz warned it could last another year. Any next step needs clear goals and a clear case to the American people. Congress should get a full classified briefing on these plots, and the administration should tell the public as much as it safely can.
Update (November 2026)
Added November 2026. As of November 9, the war had passed eight months without a deal. Rubio called Iran’s latest conditions “outrageous and ridiculous,” attacks on tankers were running at their highest rate, and the Houthis struck an Aramco office in Riyadh, Reuters reported via NBC News.
- Trump’s Iran Deal: The Islamabad Memorandum — Win, Workaround, or Warning? (2026-07-02)
- ‘I’m the Boss’: What Really Happened at the G7 Évian Summit (2026-07-02)
- Trump Called Off the Iran Strike. Tehran Says He Is Lying About Why (2026-08-05)
- Mike Waltz Says the Iran War Could Last Another Year. Believe Him. (2026-10-23)
- Oil Just Hit $117. Iran Is Betting You’ll Blame Washington. (2026-10-23)
- Trump Just Put Another Iran Strike Back on the Table (2026-10-24)
- Iran Strike After Midterms? US Tells Gulf to Brace for a Short War (2026-10-28)
- Bombs on a Tanker Hull in Hormuz. Now Trump Has to Decide. (2026-10-30)
- Iran Says It Can Reopen Hormuz in Two Days. Read the Fine Print. (2026-11-02)
- Netanyahu Wants More Iran Strikes. America Sets the Clock. (2026-11-02)
- Iran Fired at U.S. Forces. The Qeshm Island Strikes Were the Right Answer. (2026-11-03)
- Hegseth Impeachment Aims at the Wrong Man. Congress Owns This War. (2026-11-09)
Sources
- Axios: U.S. intel memo warns of “advanced” Iranian plots to kill officials abroad
- CBS News: Iran has “increased efforts to target U.S. personnel,” intel chief warns
- BBC News: Iran trying harder to target US personnel in Middle East, intelligence chief warns
- U.S. Department of Justice: IRGC member charged with plot to murder former National Security Advisor (2022)
- BBC News: US charges man over alleged Iranian plot to kill Trump (2024)
- U.S. Department of Justice: Brooklyn man sentenced to 15 years in murder-for-hire plot targeting Masih Alinejad
- NBC News (Reuters): Iran defends two-day proposal as U.S. rejects “outrageous” conditions
