Israel voted, and nobody won. The first Israel exit polls came out when polls closed at 10 p.m. Tuesday, which was 3 p.m. Central. They show neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, anywhere near a majority.
Likud is still the biggest party. Even so, the bloc opposed to Netanyahu is slightly larger. Meanwhile, Arab-led parties are on track for a record showing. That means Israel’s next prime minister could depend on parties that have almost never joined a government.
Key Takeaways
- Three major TV exit polls give Eisenkot’s bloc 52 to 53 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc 50. A majority takes 61.
- Likud leads all parties with 24 to 25 seats, beating weeks of polls that showed it trailing Eisenkot’s Yashar.
- Arab-led parties are projected at a record 17 to 18 seats.
- Turnout hit 74.3% by 8 p.m. local time, above the 70.63% in 2022.
- Official results are not due until Nov. 4, and coalition talks could take weeks.
What the Israel Exit Polls Show
The three big networks broadly agree. According to Israel Hayom, Kan 11 has Likud at 25 seats and Yashar at 21. Channel 12 has Likud at 24 and Yashar at 22. Channel 13 has Likud at 25 and Yashar at 23. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party runs third, with 12 to 14 seats.
However, the right-leaning Channel 14 tells a different story. Its poll gives the right-wing bloc 60 seats, just one short of a majority. That gap is a good reminder that exit polls are estimates, not results. The Times of Israel notes that real counts often differ from the projections.
Still, Likud’s first-place finish matters. It “defies weeks of surveys that mostly showed the premier’s party trailing,” the Times of Israel reported. After three years of war, voters did not abandon the party that led them through it.
Why Arab Parties Could Decide Israel’s Next Government
Here is the hard math in the Israel exit polls. Neither bloc reaches 61 without help. The Arab-led parties also oppose Netanyahu, but both blocs have so far refused to partner with them, the Associated Press reports. As a result, they could become kingmakers if anyone changes course.
Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra’am party, said it plainly while voting: “Our vote will change the government.” Supporters chanted his name when the exit polls appeared, the AP added.
A Fragile Coalition Is a Security Risk
This is where conservatives should pay attention. Israel is still fighting Hamas and facing Iran. Specifically, we have covered how Iran is plotting attacks on Americans abroad. A coalition that needs an Islamist party to survive may hesitate when it counts. In addition, any one partner could topple it.
To be fair, Ra’am backed the short-lived Bennett-Lapid government in 2021, and Israel survived. But that government collapsed in about a year. Above all, a wartime ally needs a government that can last.
What Comes Next After the Israel Exit Polls
First, the actual count. Al Jazeera reports that preliminary results are expected Wednesday, with a final tally Friday and official results on Nov. 4. After that, the president asks a leader to try to form a government.
If nobody can, Israel may vote again. In that case, Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister. That is exactly what happened from 2019 to 2022, when Israelis voted five times.
Before the polls closed, we laid out what was at stake in this Israel election. The answer tonight is not a verdict. Instead, it is a stalemate.
Why Americans Should Care
Israel is America’s closest ally in the Middle East. Whoever governs will make decisions on Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon that affect American troops and diplomats. Therefore, a stable, pro-American government in Jerusalem is in our interest, whoever leads it.
Bottom line: the Israel exit polls show voters split, and Likud still came out on top. Now the dealmaking begins, and America should watch closely. For more conservative commentary, visit the World of Payne homepage and follow the show on X, Facebook, and Instagram.
