Election Day is still six days away. Yet more than 36 million Americans have already voted, CBS News reports, citing the University of Florida Election Lab. Early voting is running hot in nearly every battleground state, and the numbers carry a clear warning for Republicans.
Here is the warning in one line. In states that track party, registered Democrats are turning in early ballots far faster than Republicans. That does not mean Democrats are winning. However, it does mean the GOP cannot keep treating Election Day as the only day that counts.
Key Takeaways
- More than 36 million Americans had voted early by Wednesday morning, according to the UF Election Lab.
- NBC News counted about 37.6 million mail-in and early in-person votes by midday Wednesday.
- In 27 states that record party, early voters are 45% Democrats, about 31% Republicans and 24% unaffiliated.
- Texas alone has passed 5 million early votes as its Senate race sits in toss-up territory.
- Party registration is not a vote count, and many early voters would have voted on Election Day anyway.
How Big Is the Early Voting Surge?
It is big. As of Tuesday afternoon, more than 34 million people had voted in person or by mail, States Newsroom reports. By Wednesday morning, that number topped 36 million. Meanwhile, the NBC News early vote tracker showed about 37.6 million ballots at midday. Of those, 19.8 million were cast in person and 17.7 million by mail.
Michael McDonald runs the Election Lab at the University of Florida. He said this year’s early voting is on track to pass the nearly 46 million early ballots cast in 2022. He also compared it to 2018, the highest-turnout midterm since 1914.
“Right now, the data that I can see, it looks like we’re running at least even to the 2018 election,” McDonald said. He called 2018 “a high water benchmark.”
The battlegrounds are busy, too. Texas has passed 5 million early votes. Michigan is above 1.3 million, and Ohio is near 1.2 million. Even smaller states are moving. Iowa is near 307,000, Kansas has passed 245,000 and Maine has topped 196,000, per UF Election Lab data.
What the Party Numbers Really Say
Now for the part Republicans should not ignore. Twenty-seven states record party affiliation. In those states, roughly 16 million people have voted early so far. Of them, 45% are registered Democrats and about 31% are registered Republicans. The remaining 24% are unaffiliated.
That is a 14-point early voting gap. Still, read it carefully. These figures track who returned a ballot, not who they voted for. A registered Republican in Kansas might vote for a Democrat, and the reverse happens too. On top of that, unaffiliated voters make up nearly a quarter of the pool. In addition, Texas, the biggest prize on the board, does not register voters by party at all.
There is another reason for caution. Charles Stewart, who founded the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, told NPR that many early voters would have voted on Election Day anyway. In other words, a big early voting number can simply shift ballots from one day to another. It does not always add new voters.
Stewart also said the surge reflects campaign spending. “It also kind of reflects the large amount of money that’s in this campaign that’s going into retail politics, going door to door, and just making sure that supporters are energized,” he said.
Why Early Voting Should Worry the GOP
For years, Republicans built their turnout plan around Election Day. That habit made sense for a lot of conservatives. Many of us like voting in person, on the day, at our home precinct. It feels like the way citizenship should work.
But the calendar has changed, and the other side has adapted. Every ballot banked early is one a campaign no longer has to chase. Meanwhile, a vote saved for Tuesday can be lost to a flat tire, a sick kid, a long shift or bad weather. Democrats understand this. That is why they push early, and it shows.
The stakes are high. CBS News counts seven Republican-held Senate seats among the 10 races most likely to decide control. Those are Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Texas and Alaska. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats now, so the margin for error is thin.
Texas Is the Early Voting Test Case
Texas shows the problem best. President Trump won the state by more than 13 points two years ago, CBS notes. Yet the Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is rated a toss-up. Trump held two rallies there Tuesday and told voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”
That line is the whole challenge in five words. Some conservatives only turn out when Trump is on the ballot. If those voters wait, or skip it, a red state can slip. So the smartest thing a Texas conservative can do this week is use early voting.
Vote Early, and Count Every Ballot Right
Let us be clear about one thing. Early in-person voting is not the same as loose mail voting. Notably, more early voters this year are showing up in person than mailing a ballot, based on the NBC tally. A voter who walks in, shows ID where the law requires it and casts a ballot is doing exactly what a conservative should want.
That is why the right answer is not to fight early voting. Instead, Republicans should use it while still demanding clean voter rolls and strong ID rules. We have covered that fight in New Hampshire and in Washington state, and it still matters.
Finally, remember what is driving the mood. Gas prices and the cost of living are front and center. We explained why in our look at October consumer confidence. Republicans have a case to make on energy and spending. However, a good argument does not count if the voters who agree with it stay home. Early voting is open now in many states, so use it.
FAQ
How many people have voted early in the 2026 midterms?
More than 36 million people had voted early by Wednesday morning, Oct. 28, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. NBC News counted about 37.6 million by midday.
Are Democrats ahead in early voting?
In the 27 states that track party, registered Democrats make up 45% of early voters and Republicans about 31%. That measures who voted, not how they voted, so it is not a result.
When is Election Day 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governor races are on the ballot. Check your state’s early voting rules and hours before you go.
Want straight talk on the midterms before you vote? Read more at World of Payne, and follow the World of Payne show on X, Facebook and Instagram for new episodes and daily commentary.
